Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Correlation is not Causation

If X and Y are strongly correlated, that might mean that X causes Y, that Y causes X, that each cause the other, that some third factor cause both, or it might mean nothing.

One way to feel more confident about causality is by conducting randomized trials. If you can randomly split your users into 2 groups with similar demographics and give one of the groups a slight different experience, then you can often feel pretty good that the difference expecerience are causeing the different outcomes.


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